If you are a mutual fund investor, it’s hard to resist peeking at those performance reviews published every year, listing top-performing funds. Of course, you may hope your fund will be among them, or you may be seeking new investment ideas. In either case, mutual fund performance statistics can be useful.
But do you know how to look “behind the numbers” to see the true story of mutual fund performance? That story is more intricate than the simple rate of return numbers most performance reviews offer. When you see the whole story, you are in the best position to answer important questions involved in selecting funds, such as: 1) How did the fund achieve its performance? and 2) Does the fund’s performance justify risk taken?
Remember that mutual funds aren’t pieces of machinery that run themselves. They hire professional managers who develop investment strategies and make specific buy-sell decisions. The performance data is, in effect, the manager’s scorecard. However, the manager may be doing a good job even if the scorecard doesn’t look great at first glance, and the opposite also can be true.
Three Critical Questions
To look behind the numbers, investors should ask three questions that performance analysis can answer:
- How active or passive was the manager’s strategy?
- Did the manager’s performance more than justify risk exposure?
- How did the manager perform against “peers”?
Active Vs. Passive – An index fund is considered totally passive. Its investment decisions are made by formula to match the composition of a benchmark like the S&P 500 Index. On the other extreme are highly active strategies in which managers pit their insights, wits and skills against the market. What most investors don’t realize is that there is a spectrum of semi-active or semi-passive strategies in between the extremes. In today’s competitive mutual fund industry, some fund groups specifically target how active or passive they want managers to be.
Risk vs. Return – If you are evaluating performance over decades, you can afford to focus on returns more than risks. But most performance reviews rank funds based on periods of a year or less. It’s important to take risk into account in evaluating such short-term returns, because the fund that is hottest in an up market is a good candidate to be coldest when the market turns down.
Performance vs. Peers – Before you decide whether your fund’s manager is hero or goat, check to see how performance has compared with “peers” – managers of other funds with similar objectives. Two analytical services, Morningstar and Lipper, divide mutual funds into categories and then rank managers based on either risk-adjusted (Morningstar) or raw (Lipper) returns.
One of the best ways to check your fund’s performance and ranking is to go online at www.Morningstar.com and access a free “Quicktake” report on the fund by typing in its name or symbol. Or, you can ask a professional financial professional to help you access and interpret this information. A financial professional also can help you identify mutual funds that match your needs for specific investment styles or risk tolerance, as well as funds that have consistently pursued active managed and achieved attractive risk-adjusted returns over time.